Summary
The Airvana story has been presented very confusingly. But the potential for congestion of mobile networks under the impact of broadband data traffic is real. Femtocells are one, but not the only potential means to mitigate the risk.
Analysis
As best as I understand the Airvana analysis it concludes that a smartphone generates about 8x the network signaling traffic as a laptop or netbook with an external or internal broadband wireless modem for the same volume of data traffic. The reasons for this discrepancy have to do with the polling and push-based applications usually found in smartphones, and the greater likelihood that they will be more mobile and always connected than the typical usage of a laptop/netbook. The actual relative and absolute amounts of traffic and signaling load on a mobile network generated by smartphones and laptops/netbooks will depend upon how many of each of them there are on the network, and how much data each one generates on average. If for example there are 10 times as many smartphones, but broadband wireless-enabled laptops/netbooks account for 25 x the traffic volume per unit, then the total smartphone generated traffic will be 40% of the laptop/netbook traffic (or 29% of total traffic), while the smartphone network signaling load will amount to 3.2 x that of laptops/netbooks (or 76% of the total signaling load). The underlying issue is whether and how substantial growth in smartphones and broadband wireless-enabled laptops and other devices will strain the capacity of mobile radio access networks, especially in dense urban and urban areas with high densities of simultaneous users. Much of this usage may take place indoors, which raises the question of what techniques can be employed to mitigate the risk of mobile network overload because of indoor usage. New and denser network architectures are being considered as well as use of fixed broadband access to connect the mobile broadband terminals (via an in-building wireless link to a fixed access point) to the mobile operator's core network. Another alternative to reduce the traffic load on the mobile access network is to encourage mobile customers to plug directly into fixed access points when possible in the context of bundled broadband services offerings that combine mobile and DSL or cable or FTTB services. Femtocells of which Airvana is an advocate, represent one approach to denser network architectures that is being pursued. They have distinctive technical, competitive and business model implications for mobile operators as compared to other alternatives. If Airvana's analysis is correct, it will still need to persuade operators that femtocells are the best solution under many circumstances to meeting the capacity challenge posed to their mobile networks by smartphones and other wireless-enabled broadband terminals
