Ship Order Secrecy Shifts Forecasting from Capacity to Performance

Implications: Facing increased barriers to accessing new vessel building data, perhaps the maritime industry has awakened to the reality of their own achilles heal: why deliberately contribute to the ease of collecting data on global TEU operating capacity? Historically, new capacity implied reduced operating costs for the carrier, which strengthened the shippers' argument for flat or falling rates during contract negotiations. With more of the new capacities revealed closer to maiden voyage, advance planning in rate negotiations will have a bit smaller universe of factors to consider, something that could begin a potential shift away from traditional negotiation strategies on both sides of the table.

Analysis: Credible data will become a bit more challenging for customers to obtain, particularly for those active in advanced planning and desiring a view of the pipeline, much like those interested in viewing "spy" photos appearing in automotive magazines depicting a new codename automobile whipping around a test track months before it reaches the assembly line and dealer lots.

To the carriers who bear significant capital and operating costs in managing and delivering the broad array of services within their respective infrastructure including identifying ports of call rotations, service frequency among point pairs, vessel sharing agreements, inland extended services, and integration within a Third Party Logistics infrastructure (their's or others), this move away from advance disclosure ought to strengthen their rate negotiating advantage to a degree while simultaneously increase the risks for correctly projecting optimal lift capacity within a given trade lane.

Taking this piece out of the forward planning equation will provide global organizations the opportunity to place greater negotiation closer to the needs of specific performance in exchange for service, volumes and cost /revenue. Along with this, however, is neutralizing whatever competitive advantage each side placed on using this data for their own internal objectives, inflating the risk to optimal capacity and cost planning on both sides.