Summary
Sequenom had only one application in its near market pipeline and it appears that it may never make it to a doctor's office. The basis for its use was shaky in my analysis and this reflects to me that the bottom for its market cap may not yet have been reached.
Analysis
I had actually looked at Sequenom 6-9 months ago and was concerned not so much about the science but the implications. To do a prenatal diagnosis of Down's syndrome raises a great deal of ethical and moral issues. From a business perspective as well, I was concerned about how large the market would be. Sequenom had no apparent relationship with any of the large national labs that would allow blood samples to be drawn and sent to their lab. The technology is not licenseable and as such would require samples to be analyzed only at their location. The proposed price point was close to that of amniocentesis or villous biopsy which would inevitably be required if the test was abnormal. In short, it will never replace a screening ultrasound nor will it be adequate information to avoid a more definitive procedure. The lack of clinical applicability and the fact that it is so far, Sequenom's only apparent commercial product suggests to me that the stock may fall even further.
