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July 22, 2008

Sarkozy checks Medvedev's Gazprom with his GDF Suez move

Analysis of: CEO Fires Up a French Energy Giant | online.wsj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Hans Linhardt, PresidentHans Linhardt
President, LTDI, Inc.
Implications: Sarkozy has smartly created a French energy giant by the tacit approval of the merger of Gas de France and it's natural gas rival Suez SA, now known as GDF Suez.  While the French government controls 36% of GDF Suez, the shareholders voted more than 99% in favor of the merger.  This level of shareholder support gives CEO Gerard Mestrallet the freedom to expand and make money for GDF Suez. A a matter of fact "CEO Mestrallet fires up French energy giant", according to todays WSJ on pages B1 and B2.  

Analysis: Former French president Jacques Chirac did not have the courage to play chess with Putin.  But Sarkozy has elan and checked Medvede's Gazprom's intentions of Europe's complete dependence on Russian natural gas ("NG"). GDF Suez do not own significant gas resources but have the largest long term LNG contract portfolio of any world class utility and power company with the following LNG players:

•  Norway
•  Netherlands
•  Algeria
•  Qatar
•  Egypt
•  Libya
•  Yemen
•  Nigeria
•  Trinidad & Tobago

In addition GDF Suez have a very large under-ground gas storage capacity to overcome any short and/or intermediate shut-off from contracted Gazprom NG.

While the French companies Suez and Gas de France signed up long term LNG contracts - not owning any gas reserves - the US counterparts have been asleep and find themselves now in a bind to get LNG to their speculative import terminals.  Cheniere is one example of LNG speculation without any long term LNG contracts in their portfolio.  

Of course, North America has found unconventional gas and may not need expensive LNG at prices above the Henry hub bench mark.

We all have to applaud French president Nicholas Sarkozy for putting GDF Suez on the map as security for Europe's NG supply.

 






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