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January 30, 2007

STATION CASINOS BUY OUT BID COULD BE IN SOME TROUBLE

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Ron Lodge
FormerSenior Marketing Executive (former), Venetian Casino Resort Inc
Implications: CtW Investment Group is trying to place thoughts of an undervalued offer being considered by Station Casinos and Colony Capital. CtW thinks that an offer that is $15.00 per share higher would be in the correct neighborhood. Stockholders always feel they may be getting short changed in a deal of this magnitude, however, they generally get a substantial reward from these buy outs. I do agree that there is a bit of a short fall in this possible sale, but it's not in the numbers that CtW is talking about.

Analysis: Here is a perfect example as to why these large companies are seeking private buy out deals. They are getting very tired of having to answer to stockholders in their dealing. It's a much easier process and more productive situation when you deal with the owners or partners. The ideas of management can be worked out and put in place without any interference from stockholders that, in most cases,  have no clue as to the inside workings of the company. It's a great time saver and has the potential of getting all thats on the plate moving in the correct direction and without the usual delays.

I have no beef with CtW wanting a larger piece of the pie. After all, they do hold a large block of stock and should have a say in the bid and buy process. They do represent a large portion of individual stockholders. I don't think they are being realistic about a $15.00 a share boost. Needless to say that I don't think that $82.00 a share now being considered is the final figure. I would look for a small jump but not to the extent CtW is asking. They are basing some of their demand on the potential projects that Stations has on the table. Potential tribal contracts and new properties now being considered in the Las Vegas market should not considered in the price of the stock.  I am not sure that this deal should involve future deals since there is no guarantee, at this time, that they will even be completed. I am certain that the stockholders would not consider giving back some of the the dollars should these anticipated projects not go through. The two way street should not end with either party being disgruntled.  I'm sure that there is a happy medium for in this buy out.

The new company will have some of the Fertitta family in place as partners with Colony Capital. It is really the way to go for C.C. as they are not casino people and need the guiding hand of Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta to continue the leadership of this very viable and specialized company. They are where they are today because of the direct Fertitta family hands on management of Station Casinos.
It's is my opinion that Colony Capital would find a tough road to hoe without them at the helm of this dynamic company.............


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