Summary
Moscow's unexpected change of heart over WTO accession has done nothing to help Russia join this organization. Russian decision to abandon its separate WTO bid and start new accession talks to join WTO together with other members of its Customs Union - Belarus and Kazakhstan - means a complete change of negotiating format and positions and an actual revision of previous provisional aggrements already reached between Moscow and WTO. Russia's volt-face questions the credibility of Moscow's pledges and sincerity of its drive to join WTO. Does Moscow really want to join WTO now, at the peak of the global economic crisis? The answer is no. In order to save its uncompetitive industries Russian government tends to rely on tough protectionist policies by imposing new tariff and non-tariff barriers. They contradict WTO standards and expose Moscow to severe pressures from its WTO partners. The Kremlin does not need WTO as a antiprotectionist watchdog that hinders its economic performance.
Analysis
In a short-term and even medium-term prospective the majority of Russian industries will hardly benefit from WTO membership. Most of them are low-competitive in the world markets and, and if deprived of governmental subventions in accordance with WTO requirements, will easily go bancrupt. This is particularly true about automotive and aircraft industries, agriculture, financial and insurance services. Those Russian industries who could expect some benefits from WTO - metal and chemistry production - are now facing serious difficulties due to the global meltdown and lost momemtum and power in lobbying WTO membership.
Russia apparently continues to rely upon raw materials exports arms trade as a main source of its foreign trade revenues. But oil and gas as well as missiles and battle ships are not covered be WTO mandate, and thus Russian interest in in this organization is limited.
The new talks between WTO and the Moscow-led trio will be difficult. When Moscow and Minsk demonstrate unpredicability and standoff on their economic relations, as during the recent "dairy war", WTO could wonder if they really have a common position to negotiate the WTO membership conditions. The new talks are likely to be protracted and unproductive.
