Ricin Vaccine Market Relies on Threat of Terror

Implications: Ricin is an extraordinarily potent toxin that is fatal because of its ability to inhibit protein synthesis and rapidly cause multisystem failure.  Because ricin can be prepared from castro beans, it has the potential to be used in terrorist attacks.  The present vaccine has the potential to neutralize the toxicity of ricin.

Analysis: The only market that exists for this vaccine is a government market.  Assuming the vaccine has sufficient efficacy, governments of countries will ned to weigh issues of cost of the vaccine vs risk of a ricin attack in decided whether to stockpile the vaccine.  Any prediction of market size depends on competing costs and efficacy that cannot be assessed today.  Especially improtant is how rapidly the vaccine works.  But this is unlikely to be a big winner.