Summary
Terms and definitions
El Nino - Refers to a weather event that usually last a year or more. El Nino is driven by warm waters in the tropical pacific. Most recent El Nino's have beaten a path across the US West and dumped up to 25% or more additional rainfall across the SE USA, during the wettest time of the year.
La Nina - is driven by a cool water event. Recent La Ninas have not been near as severe as the El Ninos. Generally not a concern for Forest Products
Analysis
I have been involved in trying to manage and mitigate El Nino effects, 1983-84, 1997, and 2002 - 03. During one of the strongest events an 1997, the learning's were many
- Communicated cost ramifications with local mill and Corporate NO SURPRISES
- Timber removals from many sites were nearly impossible (especially hardwood sites) - keeping Sustainable Forestry Initiatives (SFI) commitments
- Identified and properly utilized truly all weather logging sites
- Prepared realistic estimates for site prep and road repair.
- Purchased chips were priced out of the local markets
- Mitigated by setting up chipper in wood yard and bought more roundwood
- AT the properly equipped woodyards- max out wet storage capacity
- Set up the accounting to allow inter mill deliveries (same Mill owner)
- Inspect flat roof areas for possible collapse from sheer weight pooled on them
- Met with Loggers to communicate probable hardships, downtime
THe good news is El Nino can help to mitigate hurricanes, and there are usually 1-2 year periods of La Nina between episodes.............Keep an eye out for NOAA press releases
DId anyone see where I put my Oigee Board?
Brad Franchi consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
