Record low levels of corn.

Implications: Despite increasing world grain and oilseed production, demand continues to strain inventory for corn and world vegoils.

Analysis:  Corn Domestic Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 presently estimated at 1.576 bil bu vs August's 1.576 billion bushels vs 2006's 1.304 billion. For 2008/09 end stocks are projected at 1.018 billion bushels vs August's USDA estimate of 1.133 billion bu. 2007/08 Stocks to use for September estimate is 12.3% vs 12.3% last month vs 2006's 11.6% and 2005's 17.5%. USDA's 2008/09 estimate for end stocks to use is 8.1% (second tightest dating back to 1980) vs August's estimated 8.9% with 1995 the lowest at 5% dating back to 1980.
    World Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 world stocks of 123 million tonnes vs last months 122 million tonnes vs the previous years 109 million tonnes. USDA 2008/09 September end stocks are estimated at 110 million tonnes vs its August estimate of 112 million tonnes. 110 million tonnes of world end stocks would represent the fifth tightest dating back to 1980. Record high world stocks was 1986's 205 million tonnes. Record low end stocks for the world was 1983's 89 MMT. 2007/08 End stocks to use at 14.2% vs 14.0% last month and compares to USDA's 2008/09 September estimate of 12.5% vs August's estimate of 12.6%. At 12.5% end stocks to use, it represents the lowest on record dating back to 1980 with the second tightest in 2006 of 13.2%.   
    Season Average Farm Price: USDA estimates the Sept 2008/09 Season Average Farm price at $5.50/bushel vs its August estimate of $5.40 bushel. The SAFP for 2007/08 is $4.20 and 2006/07 was $3.04/bu.
    Days Supply: after total world demand is stripped from the total world supply, the number of days supply of world corn for 2008/09 is projected (since 1999/2000) at a record low 50 vs 58 in 2007/08. The previous record low dating back to 1999/2000 was 54 days in 2006/07 and well off the previous record high of 104 days in 1999/2000.    

Wheat Domestic Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2008/09 end stocks are projected at 574 mil bu via the September WASDE vs 574 million bushels estimates in the August WASDE. 2008/09 end stocks to use projections are 25% for the Sept WASDE report vs the same for the August WASDE and up 87% year on year.   
    World Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2008/09 world end stocks are projected at 139 million tonnes vs the August WASDE estimate of 136 million tonnes, up 21 MMT yr on yr. This compares to the 1995/96 year on year increase of 8 MMT regarded as a notable increase. 2008/09 world end stocks to use for September is estimated at 18% vs 17.7% estimated in the month of August vs 16.2% for the 2007/08 marketing year. At 18% end stocks to use, it represents the third tightest level dating back to 1980.   
    Season Average Farm Price: The SAFP for 2008/09 at $7.25 per bushel for the September estimate vs August's estimate of $7.25 per bushel.   
    Days Supply: after total world demand is stripped from the total world supply, the number of days supply of world wheat for 2008/09 is projected at 78 vs 69 in 2007/08. The record low dating back to 1999/2000 was 69 days in 2006/07 and well off the previous record high of 131 days in 1999/2000.  

Soybean Domestic Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 presently estimated at 135 million bushels vs 135 million bushels last month vs 574 million the previous year. 2008/09 end stocks are estimated at 135 million bushels vs the August estimate of 135 million bushels. The 135 million bushels are the third least amount since 112 million in 2003 and 1996's 132 million. 2007/08 Stocks to use as of the Sept WASDE are 4.6% vs August estimate of 4.4%. The Sept 4.6% estimate for 2007/08 is the second lowest dating back to 1980, with 2003's 4.4%. 2008/09 end stocks to use for August are projected at 4.6% tied with 2007/08 vs August estimate of 4.5%.   
    World Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 world stocks of 50 million tonnes vs last months 49 million tonnes vs last years 63 million tonnes. 50 million tonnes compare to a five year ave of 48.2 million tonnes. End stocks to use at 16.3% vs 16% last month. The five year ave has been 17.96%. 2006 end stocks to use for world soybeans was 21.2%. USDA's world 2008/09 end stocks for soybeans for the month of September is estimated at 51 million tonnes vs 49 million tonnes the previous month. 2008/09 end stocks to use are estimated at 16.3% vs August's 15.7%.   
    Season Average Farm Price: USDA's projected 2008/09 SAFP for September is projected at $12.35 per bushel vs its August estimate of $12.50 per bushel.   
    Days Supply: after total world demand of all vegetable oils is stripped from the total world supply, the number of days supply of world vegoils for 2008/09 is projected at 26 vs 25 in 2007/08. The record low dating back to 1999/2000 was 25 days in 2006/07 and off the previous record high of 35 days in 1999/2000.