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January 22, 2008

Reality vs, Wishful Thinking...

Analysis of: Retail Real Estate's Outlook | blog.retailtrafficmag.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Robert Canter, President-FounderRobert Canter
President-Founder, Performance Realty Solutions, LLC
Implications: General Growth's Indebtedness Raises Fears Among REIT Investors... As GGP has been considered one of the more stable REITS it is highly probable that more retail REITS are in the same shape holding short term debt that will be difficut at best to refinance. On top of that you have the American consumer under dire stress... Home values plunging, stock market dropping, lay-offs, and retail sales dropping...how does that support retail REIT stock shares?

Analysis: The other factor which will compound the issues of REIT share values are the retailers themselves. It had been reported in several regions that Shopping Center developers have been asked by their tenants to delay their "openings" due to the falling demand in retail sales.

Now you have an ever spreading credit crisis along with a potential stock market crash and you have the makings for a severe recession bordering on a world wide depression.

It matters not what the media is reporting, if the Fedreral Reserve just made an emergency rate cut of 3/4 of point what does that tell you.

As this writer has been been saying for over a year the credit issues will have far reaching negative impacts that will ripple through the entire economy. There will be no safe quarter.

Once again being in denial or wishful thinking is not going to change the unfolding circumstances...

The one thing economists and wishful thinkers have never comprehended is the emotional side of human behavior...Yes the media can fuel those emoitions, but once emotions take over they are extremely hard to stop unless some miracle occurs, which if you read any article in any business publication you will see that Credit availablility for businesses both large and small has virtually ceased.

The economy's health is 2/3 reliant on the consumer...you kill that sector which is happening you can have all the best "fundamentals" and it won't matter.

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
All That Doesn't Glitter May Still Be Gold
January 15, 2008, Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates

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