Summary
Housing will continue to slide.
Consumers are tapped out.
What do we expect?
Analysis
The only reason stocks recovered from March to September(and may even continue for a while) is that everybody really wants the Kool-Aid, that is the belief that all is OK. But it isn't, You can't say that ONLY a loss of 254,000 jobs in a month is good. Even when you look at the stock market, everyone beat analysts expectations simply because analysts lowered expectations so much that they were impossible not to beat. If you look at revenues, American companies are all reporting, with a few exceptions, moderate or significantly lower revenues. I am amazed that the economy only lost .7% of GDP in the most recent quarter.
I was reading an article that the (then) head economist for the NAR, in 2005, stated that it was certain that the residential upturn that was then at it's absolute peak, would CONTINUE for the rest of the decade. Shows you that these guys are just trying to spoon feed the market.
We are heading for a W folks...how can a recession be technically over when unemployment continues to increase, and benefits will be running out for many, our trade balance is bad, the FDIC is broke, etc
Kenneth Egan consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
