Summary
Any report that portrays a global resurgence of the USA real estate is irrelevant if the projection cites that the path to recovery has begun as almost all data is related to first time buyers with incentives, short sales, builder discounts and foreclosed properties as all of these types of sales are not a present in a stable resurgent marketplace. First time buyer will disappear one the incentives and available properties diminish. A report on the resurgence of the market must be based upon sustainable market events not short term stimulus with events reported in only the lower priced real estate. Any resurgence must include sales that occur across the board in all price ranges.
Analysis
In my Lehigh Valley PA MLS last month's report boasted a 46% increase in sale for the month. On the surface the picture can be drawn that the market has begun a resurgence however; once one analysis the sale data it for the most part shows and increase in sale below $150,000 and an increased trickle in the lower $200,000 range however when the activity in the $250,000 to $600,000 range is essentially flat and does not show even the beginning of a market resurgence. The same situation has occurred in the northern New Jersey market place of which I am a member of the Garden State NLS.
Until the first time buyer and incentives that support acid property sales and short sales levels off a true picture of the market cannot properly be evaluated and reported. If one disregards the middle of the market which has the broadest buyer base the trend is lower priced resales and new homes but the sales velocity remains very low.
In today's environment we all have to remember that global event reporting is irrelevant in most cases to the local markets. As politics is local so is a market resurgence. What happens to podunk doesn't necessarily affect your market especially with today's unemployment which is growing, interest rates rising, speculators forcing gas prices to artificially rise and more takes on all Americans a clear picture of a market can only be made at the local level.
