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May 1, 2008

Real Commercial/Income Property Values in the U.S.

Analysis of: Shrinking Values, Growing Anxiety | nreionline.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Paul Burns, Owner, City InvestmentsPaul Burns 
Owner, City Investments
Implications: The points of this article that I find important are the comments regarding property owners running out of money/cash in the commercial property sectors as they have in the homebuilding arena, and the comments regarding the overall strength and performance of   the companies that form the tenant base for the U.S. inventory. 

Analysis: Affordability is as big a key for businesses as for homeowners, transactions can not take place at higher price levels and greater velocity without attractive debt and commercial real estate is the repository of all business risks.   
I favor the points of view adopted by those who see deep drops in pricing over the near and intermediate future as contrasted with the comparatively optimistic points of view.  Optimism seems to run higher among those who have the largest stake currently in play.  To my mind, we have reached the top of an enormous speculative binge and the retreat will be similarly enormous.


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