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November 13, 2007

REAL ESTATE VALUES DO NOT CHANGE ON A SEASON-TO-SEASON BASIS-

Analysis of: Stores See Shoppers In Retreat | www.nytimes.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Kenneth Leonard, PrincipalKenneth Leonard
Principal, Leonard Associates
Implications: Mr. Burns seems to imply in his analysis of what is essentially an article about the weak performance of most retailers heading into the most important holiday season, that this performance has something to do with the current value of their real estate.    As a 40 year veteran of the retail and retail real estate indutries I can attest that I have never once heard any retail executive comment that the increase or decrease in a season's sales would have even the remotest impact on the underlying value of that companies real estate.

Analysis:

The only possible impact that the current poor performance of numerous retailers might have on the underlying value of real estate is if their performances were so disastrous that there would be wholesale bankruptcy of national retailers. If this were to be the case not only would there be a significant decline in the values of retailer's properties but the retail REITs would be hard hit as well.

 

Otherwise I believe the technical term for what we might experience is simply "A BAD CHRISTMAS SEASON!


Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
Here’s The Current Status of Retail Real Estate
November 12, 2007, Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments

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