QCOM v. NOK: Decision Looming at ITC

1. No matter what, I don't think this is a big deal. NOK has only a small economic risk here, given that the GSM US market is small. To the extent this matters, then, it is as a signal that QCOM might be able to use this intellectual property in other countries too, later in time.

2. This will just be the ALJ's decision. We still then go to the full ITC on the patent issues, and we still likely have a follow-on significant fight over whether QCOM has to license these patents under RAND, or is estopped from asserting them in this fashion due to some sort of waiver, estoppel, or related theory.

3. We know that, over a year ago, the staff's view was that NOK won. On some patents, the win was "this patent is invalid"; on others, it was "this patent is not infringed." Since then, the judge changed to a new judge, and the staff sat through the real trial. QCOM likely reacted to the earlier staff document and adjusted its positions to try to win the staff back. So the staff position likely has matured over time.

4. We know that NOK and the staff disagree about at least something, because NOK filed a document "rebutting" the staff's determination on something. The doc is sealed, so we don't have details. But be careful not to overread this fact. It's possible, for instance, that the staff's position on one patent is "NOK does infringe, but the patent is invalid, so no liability." If that is true, then NOK would try to rebut the first half ("hey, we don't infringe") but, either way, NOK would get off scot-free were the ALJ to adopt the staff's view. Thus, a fight between NOK and the staff does not necessarily mean that NOK is in trouble.

Decision expected today.