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May 22, 2007

Power Plants select proven GT's ahead of New Models.

Analysis of: Siemens' H Gas Turbine Heads Out for testing | www.dieselgasturbine.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
John Cousins, Managing DirectorJohn Cousins
Managing Director, Interim Energy Management Limited
Implications: Power generators will co-operate with gas turbine manufacturers to develop new, higher output more efficient GT's, but seem unwilling to order new models. The latest Siemen's H Gas Turbine will be the worlds largest and most powerful gas turbine to date, and will have an output of 340MW. Previous new models of gas turbine have suffered problems when put into commercial service, and orders only start to flow once all the problems have been ironed out. Can the period between launching a new model of gas turbine, and a successful order book be reduced?

Analysis: Experience over the last fifteen years suggests that when a new gas turbine model first goes into service, operational and engineering problems occur. The first GE 9F gas turbines had major problems in the mid 1990's leading to one European Licencee going to the wall. When Alstom introduced their GT26 in the late 1990's major problems and failure to reach guaranteed performance almost brought the company to its knees. The first GE 9H gas turbine returning 60% effiency was launched and commissioned in 2003 at Baglan Bay in South Wales, and has recently been put up for sale by FG Power Systems. New gas turbines boast higher output, greater efficiency, lower life-cycle costs, lower emissions and increased operational flexibility, yet recent European orders would suggest that buyers prefer to order earlier more tried and tested gas turbines. Orders for gas turbines for UK's latest CCGt power plants have chosen gas turbines that have been around for 8 or 10 years. The importance of proven reliability and operational flexibility appears to be valued ahead of absolute performance in terms of fuel use.


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