Phoenix is going back a fur piece according to the bloggers.

Implications: I like the content of this article except that I believe the suffering will be greater than depicted by the pros for apartments, office buildings and warehousing (the biggest part of the current industrial construction). In addition, I have been hearing for the current development cycle that the shopping center developments now being completed do not anticipate future rooftops, but I believe that these developments for the most part are way out in front of population growth. The article does not mention the hotel sector which will be hurt by a business slowdown. At best, the resort sector will suffer from an economic slowdown but pick up vacationers who no longer can foot an overseas bill as the dollar weakens.

Analysis:

I find the comments to the article revealing. Nothing like predictions of huge reductions in sale housing prices, extreme apartment vacancies, a huge recession, federal budget deficit worries, wage inflation, large increases in Mexican agricultural imports, block buster increases in produce prices, car washes, home construction, and even the daily Starbucks by the common man to stir the blood (pressure) up.

I’m partial to the common man’s wisdom in this case. Even if you say that the mob is always wrong, I believe there needs to be an unforeseen event to change the course of this fleet. Challenge me if you will, but you will really have to be clairvoyant to be persuasive. Back, back, back, down, down, down appears to be our collective near future.