Summary
1. Rapidly developing China PV industry
China is one of the largest countries in the world. Its market, includes PV market, is attracting international investors. The importance of fully understand China PV industry will never be overestimated for investors.
Driven by the global market, PV industry in China has developed quickly over the past years. For a long time, China's annual production of solar cells has composed only 1% of the whole world’s annual production. In 2005, this fraction increased to 8%, which is less than only those of Japan and Europe. China has been one of the fastest countries in the development of PV industry. and attracts international investors' interest. Someone is in China and someone is going to get in China. It is very important to fully understand exactly situation of the PV industry in China so as to develop one's own strategies.
2. Detailed information about China PV industry are provided
The World Bank/GEF China REDP prepared a 2005 Report on the Development of PV Industry in China. The report gives comprehensive review on the development of the PV industry and market in China, as well as making predictions and policy suggestions for future development.
3. Report contents
The report provides following information: Current status and trends of the world PV industry and market development, and status of Energy Resources, Development Plan, PV Industry, PV Market Development, Solar Cell R&D, Technical Standards, Authentication Systems and Quality Guarantee Systems for PV Products, Problems and Obstacles related to development of the PV Industry in China.
Analysis
This is a good comprehensive report for fully understanding PV industry and market in China especially for who is interested in developing business in China,
1. China PV market potential
To protect environment and use clean energy (Green energy), China establishes its goal for PV industry in power generation. The developing plan of China PV power generation (To 2020) and the prediction (To 2050) is listed as follow:
|
Year |
2004 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2050 | |
|
PV power |
Installation(10 MW) |
6.5 |
35 |
180 |
3000 |
60000 |
|
Annual production capacity (100 GWh) |
0.78 |
4.2 |
21.6 |
420 |
9000 | |
|
Percentage of installed PV power generation capacity in overall power generation capacity (%) |
0.01 |
0.058 |
0.23 |
2.1 |
13.85 | |
Significant PV power generation capacity shall be developed every year to match this goal which shows market potential.
2. Capacity of PV capacity and market in China
China is insufficient to supply PV silicon by itself. But several manufacturing corporations are under developing and construction and may provide enough silicon material for its PV industry by China itself within 2-3 years. The production capacity of solar module is about 1.8GW in China and it is about 3/4 of entire global capacity. The established production capacity and sales of couple of China solar module encapsulation companies are becoming top 10 in the world. The product quality is continuously improving to match IEC standards to meet international market requirements.
3. Solar module production capacity far surpass China domestic market demand
Renewable energy law was published in late 2005, but no detailed rules for law implementation have been developed. Any subsidy and incentive policy has not been firmly established. Solar market is ambiguous. While China has 1.8GW production capacity of solar module, its domestic sales was about 150MW in 2006. China domestic market can’t consume so much solar modules if all module producers make modules in full capacity. But this situation will be changed sooner or later. China central government (NDRC) and other related government agents are making plans for PV power generation by year 2010, 2015 and 2020 (as mentioned above). The first major market sector will be developed is industrial products and rural electrification, then later, grid-tied solar parks market will be developed.
4. Opportunity
China PV industry is rapidly developing. But with all aspects, from supplying of silicon materials, manufacturing of equipment for cutting and encapsulation, to market, are still at its low/middle level. A big developing room for either domestic or international investors is existing.
5. Conclusion
PV industry in China is developing. Potential market is attractive. Encapsulation capacity is in surplus. High quality material and equipment are needed. Opportunity and challenge (Risk) are both existing.
