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June 18, 2008

Oh My! Ableco is rejected, Wayzata now owns P&T's Halsey Mill

Analysis of: Willl There Be Layoffs at Harmac? | www.topix.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Dave Hillman, Independent ConsultantDave Hillman
Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
Implications: The Halsey mill was sold twice in one week.  First to Ableco for $24 million (but only $10 million in cash, the remainder was debt assumption).  Wayzata stepped up and bid $31 million cash but immediately refused to recognize the local Union.  Will this allow them to reduce the 180 man workforce down to 140 and will even those men be faced with the prospect of  layoffs? Standing in the wings is James Hardie, the fiber reinforced cement producer who has relied on the Halsey mill for its needed Unbleached Softwood pulp.  Should anything go wrong with the Wayzata bid, James Hardie will be the next new owner (that would make 3 in a matter of weeks!).  If James Hardie were to acquire the mill they would undoubtedly immediately change the grade mix to one of 100% Unbleached Softwood....leaving all the present buyers of the mill's NBSK (bleached softwood) out in the cold. Can Wayzata make this a profitable enterprise or will it turn out to be a money pit?

Analysis: The Halsey mill is quite diversified...producing both fully bleached as well as unbleached softwood from a blend of Hemlock and Douglas Fir.
Their two paper machines produce tissue and towelling for the West Coast market....using pulp from the mill's 125,000 st/year deinking operation.  The mill is advanteously located near the Pacific which eliminates costly inland freight charges.  These are all significant advantages.
However, on the other hand, the mill is old and carries a high maintenance liability. How much longer will the recovery boiler operate efficiently without needing a rebuild?   The market pulp side only produces 62-65,000mt/year which makes it a relatively small operation compared to the new world class eucalyptus mills which produce 1.1 million mt/year.
Can this mill produce enough first quality pulp and tissue products to cover their high wood costs, energy costs, maintenance costs and still make an acceptable profit?  Obviously Wayzata believes it can. Perhaps they're already in contact with James Hardie company about producing more Unbleached Softwood for them...maybe even switching over 100%.
Wayzata has a number of options open to them as far as marketing all the products but first they must deal with the Union/labor situation and must also seek to set up supply sources for chips and round wood?  Halsey is surrounded by other mills who are already drawing from the same fiber basket and the question is "will there be enough chips to go around seeing that so many sawmills have had to shut down?"


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