Summary
October car sales are expected to come in at the highest level of the year except for the summer's "Cash For Clunkers" program.
Analysis
Auto industry sales, being reported on Tuesday, are expected to total 834,000 vehicles, almost even with a year ago and up 11.4% from September. That would push October's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized rate (SAAR) to 10.35 million, up from 9.19 in September.
General Motors is expected to achieve its highest market share for the year - 21.5% - as its hefty investment in incentives and marketing pays some dividends. Ford's market share is hovering in the same range as it has for the past year.
Chrysler, however, which next week makes public its five year plan under Fiat control, has lost 3.5 points of market share in the past year. Meanwhile, Hyundai Group, including the Hyundai and Kia brands, has gained the biggest chunk of what Chrysler has lost.
Combined monthly U.S. market share for the Detroit Three is expected to come in at 44.7% in October, according to Edmunds.com's forecast. That's down from 47.4% in October 2008 and up from 44.5% in September.
GM will sell 179,000 vehicles, up 5.7% from October '08 and up 14.8% from September.
Ford will sell 128,000 vehicles, down 3.5% from October '08 and up 12.6% from September.
Chrysler will sell 65,000 vehicles, down 31.4% from October '08 and up 4.3% from September.
Toyota will sell 143,000 vehicles, down 6.2% from October '08 and up 13.2% from September.
Honda will sell 88,000 vehicles, up 2.9% from October '08 and up 14.4% from September.
Nissan will sell 64,000 vehicles, up 12.7% from October '08 and up 15.8% from September.
Hyundai/Kia will sell 50,000 vehicles, up 38.3% from October '08 and down 5.5% from September.
October 2009 had 28 selling days, one more than October '08. When adjusted for this difference, overall sales decreased 4.1% from October 2008.
