Summary
1. There is no doubt that Occam will be a beneficiary of the ARRA funding because its “business model is focused on the rural customer.” 2. Others have oppotrunities as well. 3. And with “preference...given to higher speed projects,” fiber to the home will be the dominant equipment deployed.
Analysis
Occam will probably benefit from the stimulus package for rural broadband services. Despite it's historic position of being a "copper based" service provider, new fiber deployments are within their grasp.
In any event, the rural LECs would be crazy not to use the money for FTTH, especially in cases in which the cost per homes passed is exceptionally high. A greater push on the technology will mean that existing, prominent players such as Calix and Adtran will be aggressively going after this business. Calix, being a private company, has an awful lot of flexibility. It will put market share before margins anytime. In fact, when Calix bought Optical Solutions, the margins of the latter appeared to be higher than the former. It is probably not even out of the question that in some cases Calix will be willing to go below cost. The CEO is probably in a position to fund the company himself, if necessary.
While most of the attention is being given to Calix and Occam, there appears to be a sleeper in the making, Enablence Technologies. The supplier has had a good number of wins in the RLEC space, and before the stimulus package was passed, it was confident about getting substantial sales results in 2010.
