Summary
1) Obama will continue to raise money at a record pace. 2) But the Republicans, among public financing, the Republican National Committee, and independent organizations running their own ads, will at least match what Obama puts together financially. 3) Therefore, Obama's fundraising is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for winning the election in November.
Analysis
Every presidential election in recent times has been termed critical to the future of our nation: the people's choice would unalterably affect the course of history for good or ill in particularly stark terms. And perhaps they have. But this one, with the sharp differences in party philosophy, substance, and the candidates themselves, in light of the challenges we face, indeed fits that bill.
To help the public make that choice, enormous amounts of money will be necessary. But those sums will only ensure that a candidate gets in the game. Barack Obama's record fundraising will make him competitive; it will not win the election.
John McCain and the Republicans will be able to match or even exceed any amount the Obama campaign will raise. Among the $84 million in federal financing for which he will qualify, money raised by the Republican National Committee, and independent efforts (plainest example: the Swift Boat ads of 2004), the McCain Campaign will be able to respond everywhere.
The Times article makes clear that the record amount of money being raised by Sen. Obama -- a $300 million goal for the general election --is enabling him to open offices in Virginia, Montana and other states where Democrats have not been competitive in recent elections. They are building on the 50-state strategy of Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean: campaign in all states; don't concede any.
What this broader reach will mean is that Sen. Obama
will be able to display in detail his ideas, his character and, yes, his charisma to much more of the public than would otherwise have been possible. Voters will be able to observe for themselves his policy proposals, from the economy to Iraq to health care, his relatively youthful vitality and experience, and his eloquence, in a much more direct way than through far-off media coverage and advertising. He will therefore be competitive in many more parts of the country.
This will afford the Democrats numerous possible permutations to amass the 270 electoral votes needed to win. They will not be limited to East and West Coast states as they have been in the past few presidential campaigns. There will not be silence from the Obama Campaign affirmatively or in response to the opposition, caused by his absence from the field of political battle; hamstrung by a lack of funds as, say, John Kerry was at a pivotal point in 2004. Voters will have tangible thoughts and proposals to judge.
In other words, fundraising is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for Sen. Obama to win the election of 2008. Companies and industries should base their support of either Obama or McCain on philosophy, substance, ability to lead and other such factors. They will not be able to place a winning bet based on one side overwhelming the other through fundraising. Money will simply not determine the outcome of this election.
