Nintendo's Strength Will Continue into '08

Implications: With a strong lineup, third party publisher support and a strong next-gen installed base, Sony has a ways to catch up and few, strong exclusive titles for this holiday season.

Analysis: Nintendo won't lose any time soon.  Games with Zelda, Dogs and Mario in the title will be driving sales through the first half of 2008.  Also, more publishers are making games for the Wii than for PS3 - even if they are about cooking or non-gaming things.  Playstation 3 games have a smaller installed base than Nintendo and has a ways to catch up.  Even with the recent jump in console sales, they still won't sell as many as Nintendo will of the Wii.  The DS is a juggernaut and continues to outsell the slimmed down PSP.  And now that developers are making games exclusively for next-gen consoles, Playstation loses the PS2 in software sales - and it can't be made up by a higher price point or downloadable content.

It will be a good holiday season for all gamers and gaming companies.  Playstation has Metal Gear Solid 4, Grand Theft Auto 4 and Killzone 2 in the first half to look forward to, while the Wii has support from Mario Galaxy, Mario Kart and Super Smash Brothers Brawl to blow the doors off of any Playstation 3 title sales and make up for fewer key title releases.  Lastly, the Wii doesn't often compete with either the Xbox 360 or PS3 - it's either the only console for a family with young children or a second, change of pace console for the more avid gamer.  So unless something drastic changes - like Nintendo doesn't make any more Wii systems or the date slips on a major release by 12 months - little will change in the near term.