Summary
1. Although the NAND flash manufacturers (Toshiba, Samsung, Hynix) have significantly cut production, and have successfully raised price from under $2 for a 1GB device in December, to over $3 per chip today ultimately pricing will again come down. 2. If and when the economy improves during the second half of the year each of these NAND flash manufacturers will probably become more agressive to protect their market share, and gain fuller utilzation of their manufacturing facilities.
Analysis
1. It is my belief that ultimately out in the late 2010 time frame pricing will approach $1 per GB.This will occur as next generation CMOS technology and 4 bit per cell technology are used to make higher capacity, smaller chips that will be sold for lower pricing.
2. It is in the best interest of the NAND industry to continue to lower prices so that they can continue to displace magnetic HDD's in applications such as notebook computers.
