Summary
1. There are pitfalls for market research firms concentrating on only top-down analyses. 2. Skewed results are often the case with information based almost totally on supplier feedback. 3. There is the trap of getting only snapshots in time.
Analysis
The idea that Alcatel-Lucent is “barely holding on to the number one spot” on GPON is absurd. The only way that Motorola catches up just somewhat is by focusing on Verizon’s purchases during a small portion of the fourth quarter of 2008. It was really just a one-off opportunity. Major carriers do these types of deals all of the time towards the end of the year. Motorola has a contract with Verizon for GPON. The carrier decides to essentially throw a bone to its second vendor probably in exchange for a discounted price. And Motorola’s margin potential is obviously that much lower in a space in which high profit is non-existent with Verizon dominating the space to such a large degree. The RBOC most likely has no intention of making any further purchases from the vendor until maybe towards the end of 2009. Therefore, Alcatel-Lucent’s market share remains much higher than Motorola.
