Mobile commerce's huge promise and the 10 major dependencies to mass adoption

Implications: * 10 elements, including mobile Internet, GPS, and mobile payment security, are considered relative to their impact on mobile commerce
* As these elements speed up, enhanced by strong brand buy-in (Paypal, Visa, Mastercard, Apple), the tipping point to consumer adoption will likely take place in 2009 or 2010


Analysis: It is fantastic to see mobile payment options increasing, and we are getting closer to a tipping point.  I disagree with the Obopay executive hat that tipping point will be next year and consider it much more likely in 2009 or 2010, but, of course, the executive is biased by his vested interested.  Visa and Mastercard testing mobile options are great at helping to speed it along.

In the spirit of figuring out when mobile payments or m-commerce will gain a critical mass, here are 10 elements that I believe are vital in speeding adoption:
1) Mobile Internet User Interface - WAP delivers a mediocre to awful rendition of mobile wep pages, but other interfaces as Apple's iPhone incorporating multi-touch and zoom technology should improve the mobile web interface.  A better mobile web will certainly increase adoption, and that will provide many more opportunities to elicit mobile payments.
2) Mobile payment security - of course, encryption and payment protection will be vital in supporting mobile payment adoption, and the organizations that secure payments best, market this security, and make that security ubiquitous across platforms will have the lead in this space.  Paypal's ups and downs in this arena foreshadow future ups and downs.
3) GPS - delivery of position-based offers and marketing.  'Nuff said.
4) Quick payment buttons or other handset interface supports.
5) Proliferation of mobile payment options - the article refers to the great rise in options, especially prominent options as credit card companies, and this will speed up the adoption of m-commerce.
6) Proliferation of receptors for mobile payments - the Coke example is a great one, but one can imagine any number of receptors, from Bluetooth or infra-red to bar code readers (as some Sprint Nextel phones) to text message receivers (as via Paypal) and many more.  Consumer trials of numerous options will be necessary.
7) Promotions from payment companies - discounts or loyalty points or other promotions will also be key to incentivize trial, and we have yet to see prominent promotions.
8) Branding campaigns (or Apple to take it on) - like any new service, the public needs to become aware and understand benefits in order to adopt a product.  The quick road to adoption is if a company as Apple uses their iPhone platform to encourage one-touch mobile payments.
9) Single sign on or better linked accounts - with all the accounts that consumers now have, we need better management tools to link the accounts and universalize our sign-on.  This is why Paypal could succeed, as they link multiple accounts.  The next generation will likely have both middle players as Paypal to link accounts as well as master accounts that combine smaller streams.
10) Time - all of these elements need to improve, along with consumers testing and becoming comfortable with the options.