July 21, 2008
Minority Investment by International Player in Sprint Might Make Most Sense
Analysis of:
SK Telecom Should Hang Up on Sprint | blogs.wsj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Implications: 1. It is interesting that the writer of the source article does not buy into the argument recently made by his own publication that Sprint “has begun to show signs of a rebound.” 2. SK’s involvement in Helio is not an analogous situation. 3. A gradual penetration into the U.S. wireless market by international service providers might turn out to be the best approach.
Analysis: Another recent news piece in the The Wall Street Journal states the following: “[Sprint’s] new Samsung Instinct phone is selling well and its new marketing -- which uses Chief Executive Dan Hesse in TV ads -- is beginning to pay dividends. Sprint is expected to show improvement in its customer-turnover rate in the second quarter.” While the change might be the improved voice quality on the Nextel phones -- in losing so many subscribers that were using a network with limited capacity -- and not the ads, Sprint does seem to be looking up a bit. An investor wants to get in as early as possible for an expected increase in value – not wait until “Sprint untangles the mess left from the Nextel fiasco.”
In order to be a world player, having a stake in the U.S. market is probably essential. It is also not out of the question that the U.S. for the first time becomes a key leader in driving new applications for wireless – whereas operators in Asia and Europe in the past were the principal innovators. In addition, with a small initial investment, SK can test the waters in terms of how far the U.S. government will go in allowing an overseas entity to take share of a service provider catering to its agencies – in this case, it would include both wireline and wireless services.
Regarding Helio, there is little similarity with Sprint. Helio is an MVNO, which is a type of business that in most situations lacks a very good business case. On the other hand, Sprint with its CDMA and long-haul networks does have a lot of upside potential.
Analysis: Another recent news piece in the The Wall Street Journal states the following: “[Sprint’s] new Samsung Instinct phone is selling well and its new marketing -- which uses Chief Executive Dan Hesse in TV ads -- is beginning to pay dividends. Sprint is expected to show improvement in its customer-turnover rate in the second quarter.” While the change might be the improved voice quality on the Nextel phones -- in losing so many subscribers that were using a network with limited capacity -- and not the ads, Sprint does seem to be looking up a bit. An investor wants to get in as early as possible for an expected increase in value – not wait until “Sprint untangles the mess left from the Nextel fiasco.”
In order to be a world player, having a stake in the U.S. market is probably essential. It is also not out of the question that the U.S. for the first time becomes a key leader in driving new applications for wireless – whereas operators in Asia and Europe in the past were the principal innovators. In addition, with a small initial investment, SK can test the waters in terms of how far the U.S. government will go in allowing an overseas entity to take share of a service provider catering to its agencies – in this case, it would include both wireline and wireless services.
Regarding Helio, there is little similarity with Sprint. Helio is an MVNO, which is a type of business that in most situations lacks a very good business case. On the other hand, Sprint with its CDMA and long-haul networks does have a lot of upside potential.
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