Summary
The effects of late planting, cool-wet soils in May, and flooding in June can't be overcome by favorable weather in July and August. USDA's yield and production estimates may well turn out to be on the optimistic side when we finally get the crop in the bin.
Analysis
Dr. Good and the UIUC's model, according to this article, indicates that the US corn yield could improve by 1 BPA over USDA's most recent report (148.4). While I don't have a mathematical model to support my "gut instinct", a decrease seems more likely than an increase, even with ideal weather for the balance of the growing season.
My logic?
1: Late Planting - most of IL was 3-4 weeks or more late getting corn into the ground. Although UIUC continues to stand pat on early May as being the ideal planting date for corn, on the farm experiences have shown that our bumper yields have occurred in years when we planted before May, not in it. Late planting pushes pollination and kernel fill into late summer, when temperatures are higher, and rainfall is lower.
2: Water logged, cool soils in May - Not only did the corn go in late, but then it languished under far-less-than-ideal conditions for weeks, as we received too much rain, and not enough sun and heat. There were virtually no "good" looking fields in a big portion of central corn belt in IL. Ideal yields occur when you have ideal growing conditions for the entire season. That wet cool start has cost us some yield that we can't expect to get back.
3: Ponds - Multi-inch rains fell in IL during May, all prior to the flooding that occurred in IA and in western IL during June, and those heavy rains drowned out large sections of fields. Many of the ponds were replanted, but replanted areas will yield significantly less. When the average is tallied, we can expect a great deal of variability in yields across fields this year, due to the effects of ponds pulling down averages.
Bottom line, I believe USDA's current corn yield estimate is more likely high than low, and production estimates for corn could continue to fall as we head into harvest.
