Microsoft Beware, Apple is Knocking!

Implications: Apple cannot win the enterprise market for the Mac, but Microsoft can give it to them.  When the resurgence of the Mac is combined with Microsoft’s continuing insistence on selling Vista to enterprises, the door is open to Apple gaining a solid presence in the enterprise market.

Analysis: Apple’s successes the last few years have almost a fairy-tale aspect.  Few would  have predicted in 2003 that Apple could be where they are today.  Allegedly not even Jobs really believed this kind of success was possible.  Apple’s recent successes have been fueled by their consumer products – the iPods and iPhones, but the Mac has also benefited.  Not many today remember, but in the late Eighties the Mac was considered a viable alternative in the enterprise market, albeit a niche product.  During the Nineties Apple somehow lost that status and by the late  Nineties had virtually no presence in the enterprise.  Today the tide is turning and people are starting to ask for Macs again.  Despite the very legitimate objections CIOs have to bringing in Macs, when a large enough group of users demand Macs every CIO must give them serious consideration.

The pricing of Mac hardware, the fact it’s a single-source vendor, along with the training and support requirements for a new and additional platform are normally enough to eliminate Macs from serious consideration in enterprises.  This picture is changing today, however, with Vista failing to penetrate the enterprise market.  Microsoft continues to adopt a “head in the sand” approach to Vista, with Ballmer recently stating something to the effect that Microsoft would continue to support XP if the users demanded it, but he hadn’t yet seen the demand.  If he hasn’t seen that demand he must have spent the last year in solitary confinement!  Everyone else has seen it.  Vista’s penetration into the enterprise is still abysmally low.

A recent Forrester article said that enterprises should just stop whining and accept Vista, since it was inevitable and they don’t have a choice anyhow.  Wrong!  If this is representative of the thinking at Microsoft they’re due for a very unpleasant surprise in the next couple of years.  Vista’s problems are well-documented:  Excessive hardware demands, limited driver/software compatibility, and continuing reliability problems.  XP is today the enterprise choice, and will continue to be so for the near term.

When given a choice between Vista’s hardware demands, which equate to higher prices for hardware, and the Mac’s typically higher prices there isn’t much difference.  Vista’s compatibility issues with drivers and ISV software effectively offsets the training curve for introducing Macs.  And most convincing – the Mac is a more  reliable platform in the enterprise space than Vista.  Given this list, suddenly the Mac is looking like a viable choice.  Add in popular demand, and CIOs now “can” choose Macs. 

Enterprises will stay on XP if possible and wait for Microsoft to release a new OS that works in their environment.  In that scenario the Mac will gain a little enterprise market share but not a lot.  If Microsoft forces enterprises to go to  Vista, most will comply and simply suffer the consequences.  But a significant minority will revolt and go to the Mac.  Some will also go to Linux – Ubuntu is increasingly a viable alternative.  So Apple can’t win the enterprise market, but Microsoft can hand it to them unless they wake up and provide a viable enterprise OS.