Matter of Factly, the Feds Make Wind A Major Energy Source

Implications: Renewable energy has been a step child in the US Department of Energy's household.  Research and development has never been generous or consistent, and the expected contributions of renewable energy to American needs have been treated like a petting zoo on the way to the lions and tigers of fossil and nuclear energy.  But a recent USDOE report on the reasonable expectation that wind power will generate 20% of American electricity may signal the beginning of the end of this benign neglect.

Analysis: The US Department of Energy has been historically ambivalent about renewable energy.  Political favoritism and institutional bias has made renewable's research and development modest budgets a roller coaster, robbing them of even more strategic efficacy.  The forward reporting by the Energy Information Agency of a renewables playing a minor role in future energy production in the US fails to take into account the decades of start up required before major market share can be achieved.

The facade of indifference may be cracking a little as this recently released USDOE report which expects that the American wind power industry will by 2030 reach 20% of the nation's electricity, not capacity, a higher number.  This would require 300,000 megawatts of capacity, a rate that would come close to equaling the total capacity presently  installed (over 15,000 MW) every year.  It acknowledges that the first 1% of electricity generated by American wind in 2007 is the beginning of significant market development.

In a nearly matter of fact manner, as opposed to more breathless entities like Greenpeace, the USDOE report lays out the likelihood in terms of expected costs, transmission infrastructure growth and regulatory policy can be achieved.  The report assumes the 20% can be reached even against USDOE expectation that fossil fuel power plant costs will remain stable and nuclear's will decline, a scenario which is looking increasingly unlikely.

The report underhandedly acknowledges the Renewable Portfolio Standard policies by many states in making this 20% goal realistic.  This 20% number could make up most of the additional electricity demand in the US by 2030, especially if serious consideration is given to efficiency and other renewables.   More over, 20% would equal about what the nuclear power industry generates at present.

However the production tax credit situation goes this year in Congress, this report will be provide strong encouragement for American market development in wind power in the coming years.