Many Moving Parts: Doubleclick Implications

Implications: 1) Ignore the price: By now this should be obvious.

2) GOOG gets instant display ad relationships with nearly all large online publishers and more than half of online ad agencies. Whoot!

3) Free ad serving is on its way and pairs very nicely with free Web analytics and ad campaign optimization. This spells trouble for anyone in the ad serving, ad management/optimization biz.

4) Better ad serving is on the way. Buzz in the privacy community is a good indicator of what is sure to come (and what YHOO already does): serving ads based on user’s searching and Web browsing activity. This spells even more trouble for anyone in the ad serving, ad management/optimization biz.

5) Media & analysts are missing the point: GOOG's core market. 
Although it wants to have large agencies who manage large brands as clients, GOOG is increasingly positioning to become the dominant ad distribution/services provider for a “mid tier” market that demands convenience, scale. 

6) ValueClick next?  Likely not.  There’s much buzz about ValueClick (VCLK) being ripe for the picking now that DCLK is off the table. This speculation is misguided and it’s important to understand why.  aQuantive (AQNT) becomes of more interest.

7) GOOG’s display business is poised to take off.   As the company rolls out its new Doubleclick network in a highly scalable, self-service manner among existing advertisers it's looking good for GOOG. 


8) Google wins an ad exchange / marketplace.

Analysis: Ignore the Price
By now this should be obvious. GOOG doesn't need to recover such investments at this stage (so long as they own a printing press).  GOOG gets instant display ad relationships with nearly all large online publishers and more than half of online ad agencies. Whoot!

Free ad serving is on its way (insider buzz suggests)
It would pair very nicely with GOOG's existing FREE Web analytics and FREE ad campaign optimization. This spells trouble for anyone in the ad serving, ad management/optimization biz.

Better ad serving is on the way
Buzz in the privacy community is a good indicator of what is sure to come (and what YHOO already does): serving ads based on user’s searching and Web browsing activity. This spells even more trouble for anyone in the ad serving, ad management/optimization biz.

GOOG's core market & the coming social media explosion
Although it wants to have large agencies who manage large brands as clients, GOOG is increasingly positioning to become the dominant ad distribution/services provider for a “mid tier” market that demands convenience, scale.

Yes, this means it's "democratizing" the media business but no, contrary to those who suggest GOOG has no chance at playing with the big guys, the company can successfully serve BOTH audiences.

GOOG doesn't play in the 'behavioral targeting' space that seeks to arm large advertisers and their respective publishers with whiz-bang ad targeting technology. Why? They don't have to. This business is not scalable enough for GOOG and inventory is limited versus the explosive social media opportunity (so-called user generated content is vast and offers potentially endless inventory) setting up before them.

ValueClick is not next: AQNT is
There's much buzz about ValueClick (VCLK) being ripe for the picking now that DCLK is off the table. This speculation is misguided and it’s important to understand why. aQuantive (AQNT) becomes of more interest given its similarities (Performics is to DCLK as AvenueA/Razorfish is to AQNT).

With the addition of Performics (a unite being completely ignored by analysts), GOOG will begin to resemble aQuantive with a twist -- GOOG will carefully balance self-service ad management tools (aimed at advertisers direct AND agencies) with high end marketing services (via its Performics unit which looks a lot like AQNT’s AvenueA).

This serves all advertisers... those who value self-service scale and those who need full blown agency services.

GOOG’s display business is poised to take off
As the company rolls out its new Doubleclick network in a highly scalable, self-service manner among existing advertisers it's looking good for GOOG. Competition for display ads will only increase (considering it's now opened up to a wide variety of smaller advertisers). The display offering pairs nicely with GOOG’s move into CPA.

This will spur the company to offer all payment options (CPM, CPC, CPA) across all display and text ad networks.

Google wins an ad exchange
GOOG wins a marketplace for its huge lot of advertisers to leverage. So much for RightMedia (not to mention Yahoo’s stake in the company).

Anecdotally, consider the cash: GOOG acquired DCLK in an all cash deal. DCLK acquired Performics in an all cash deal. Nobody wants stock. Hmmm. What does this say about GOOG and dare I suggest “the market?” Market=GOOG=Market?