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January 25, 2008

Lithium Batteries Will Be Totally Unnecessary As The Modern Electric Car And Fuel Distribution System, First Born And Died in California, Is Now Reborn In Israel

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Jack Lifton, Managing DirectorJack Lifton
Managing Director, Jack Lifton, LLC
Implications: A US Company called Project Better Place has figured out a 'better place' to try out a total solution to the implementation of a battery powered electric car strategy than the US, Israel. Renault-Nissan, which recognizes that no large industrial nation such as the US or France is small enough to test out a total electric car support system has recognized that such a test in Israel could, if successful, well give Renault-Nissan the experience to take a commanding lead in the race to build a practical electric car manufacturing, fueling, sales and service system. A successful test will also give Renault-Nissan the opportunity to build 2 million cars just for the Israeli market. This could be nearly fifty billion dollars in initial sales.

Analysis: The GM EV1, a 2 passenger car, powered by lead-acid batteries had a 60 mile range with comparable performance in acceleration and top speed to a gasoline powered car of the same size. It was withdrawn from the California market, the only place it was leased, and the existing 800 cars were scrapped, in 1999, when California repealed its zero emissions mandate.

Gone along with the EV1 at the time went Chevron's support for the American invented and developed nickel metal hydride battery, which on a weight for weight basis would have doubled the range of the existing EV1.

This was important, because GM and Chevron's abandonment of the EV1 and of the higher capacity battery left the field completely open to Toyota to make and sell the Prius hybrid and create without competition a market segment that today has allowed Toyota to become neck and neck with and, surely, within the year, surpass GM as the world's largest volume producer of cars. This is entirely the fault of short sighted, Wall Street quarterly result driven, not very clever, GM top managers most of whom are still in the same positions, notably Rick Wagoner.

GM owned rights to the nickel metal hydride battery in 1999 and then, when the California pressure looked to subside, sold their rights to Chevron. Although the company created by Chevron, Chevron Ovonic Battery Systems, COBASYS, still exists and even makes a few batteries it has never been able to make a profit, and, in fact, has lost nearly 200 million dollars under Chevron's tutelage.

Toyota began making its own nickel metal hydride batteries in China and then Japan almost as soon as it converted over the initial Prius from lead acid to nickel metal hydride batteries.

There is no need whatsoever for a lithium technology battery system for battery powered electric cars for the Israeli market. The range provided by nickel metal hydride batteries is more than sufficient for driving anywhere in Israel, and if hybrids are also offered such cars will be able to leave the electric grid and drive any distance required.

As to cost, since the electric utility and/or the car company will undoubtedly own the batteries and only lease them to the end use customer their, the battery's, lives will be indefinite and through recycling can be made, literally, eternal. Once the total number of purely battery powered cars and trucks are built and the only replacement batteries needed are to replace those completely destroyed in accidents.

France has direct access to the large deposits of nickel and cobalt from its former possessions of New Caledonia. Rare earth metals will be provided through the relationship between France's Rhodia, the world's largest producer of fine rare earth chemicals, and its long term relationship with China, the world's only current producer of rare earth metals and ores.

The Israeli electric car project will be a true test of political resolve. The oil companies will be against it, and the car companies with their perpetual delays due to waiting for the perfect battery will be exposed as short sighted and hypocritical.

The Arab oil states may or may not realize the value of this project; if they realize that such a system could free up their liquid hydrocarbons ultimately for use as chemical feed rather than as fuel they might just figure out that such a change could give them revenues for centuries rather than generations.

It is really now up to Renault-Nissan to persevere; this project could well propel Renault-Nissan into becoming the world's premier vehicle manufacturer before 2020.





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