Summary

Landmark Mall in suburban Virginia has been in decline for almost 20 years, as cash strapped GGP milked the center for any operating income they could get. In what was supposed to be a grand vision of future retailing and commercial space, GGP simply waited too long to redevelop the center and now sits on a white elephant, replete with local uses and property tax blight. The site isn't as valuable as the City of Alexandria believes and the area is changing, and not for the benefit of GGP.

Analysis

Being a long time observer of Washington, DC real estate, there are certain nuances of location and influence that you notice after a while. Retailing is, despite the descriptions in the article, either a specific use or a destination use. Landmark Center is located off of 95 inside the beltway, in an area that has been passed by for development growth since metro went in almost 30 years ago. The area is changing and due to the development constraints of the city of Alexandria and their incessant interference with property ownership, the end result was these two characteristics:


1. The area has a high preponderance of older residents, not inclined to shop at malls or spend much at retail.
2. The demographics of the area skew to a very high immigrant population and they've successfully developed their own culture, institutions and shops.

The reality of Landmark is that customers have developed loyal shopping patterns to Rosslyn/Ballston and Crystal City/Pentagon City and don't want nor need Landmark any longer. It would be foolish for the city of Alexandria and GGP to try to rebuild until such time as affordable housing is introduced in Alexandria and this area then needs new services. Since the city has a bias against affordable housing, expect Landmark to remain a failed project for a long time to come.

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Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.