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August 21, 2008

LTE operators hold back WiMAX or just need a decision?

Analysis of: Ofcom knocks back spectrum auction | www.theregister.co.uk
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Peter Curnow-Ford, ChairmanPeter Curnow-Ford
Chairman, Eisar Ltd.
Implications: The real issue here is one of knowing what the regulatory position is going to be 3 to 4 years out. Will the mobile operators be allowed to re-farm their 2G spectrum, will they be able to use the technology of their choosing and then work the investment plans to make it happen? Is the regulator doing this deliberately - most probably not. Do the mobile operators benefit from a delayed auction - yes. Do we need to wait and see - yes.

Analysis: This is a both a simple issue and a complex one and one that is obviously subject to legal interpretation - this latter makes it very difficult for anyone to pre-judge the outcome or even whether it will go to a full hearing or trial.

The arguments either way are strong, and the areas of contention cover both decisions made by OFCOM and the EU/ITU and also what OFCOM believes its statuary obligations to be.

As the article says, the cynics say this is a blocking move on a technology platform decision - I think its much more complex than that. It is further a juxtaposition of the norm, i.e. normally its the operators trying to force the regulator to free up spectrum, now we have the regulator doing just that and the operators are complaining.

Needs another couple of months yet to see what will happen.


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