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August 6, 2008

July Auto Sales: The Good; The Bad; The Ugly

Analysis of: Auto Sales Sink, With Big Three Hit Hardest | online.wsj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Jack Sayer, Managing PartnerJack Sayer
Managing Partner, Sayer Partners LLC
Implications: One would have to dig into the history books back to 1992 to find a worse month for car and truck sales in the U.S. than July.

Analysis: With July sales coming in at levels not seen since 1992, the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) fell under 13 million vehicles-12.55 million to be exact- the lowest rate since the recession of the early 1990's.

Of the big Six automakers, only Nissan noted an increase in sales. Even Honda, which analysts had predicted would see an uptick, reported lower July sales. Detroit's Three slumped to their lowest combined market share-43.4%-in history.

The issues causing the fall were similar to the recession of 1992.-high oil prices, fear of oil availability and distressed housing issues.

Economic indicators released during the week piled on to those, including economic growth numbers that were revised down for the first half and a jobless rate that climbed to its highest level in more than four years.

Here's how the Detroit Three did:

General Motors:

The Good:
GM's car business was healthy. At Chevy, the Aveo, Colbalt and Malibu models all showed sales increases. At Pontiac, sales of the G5, G6 and Vibe were up in July. At Saturn, the Aura had its best month ever. The Sky and Astra both seemed to gathering momentum, with sales increases in July. Even the Buick Enclave saw sales climb 28%.

The Bad: In total, GM sales were down 26.7% in July. Pushing sales so far this year 18% lower. Sales of GM trucks of every size were abysmal. Truck sales were down 29% in total. Sales of mid-size SUVs plummeted a whopping 75%, with full size SUVs down another 40%.

The Ugly: Buick was down 39.9% in July, the brands worst month since January 2002. Cadillac down 24.2% in July, off 12% for the year. GMC down 37.7% in July, 21% for the year. Hummer, 61.7% in July, 44% for the year. Saab, fell 37.6%, 30.4 for the year.

Ford:

The Good: A positive gain of 5.9% on the passenger car side of the business, including a 13.5% jump for the Fusion and a 15.6% gain for the Focus. Even the sporty gas-guzzling Mustang held its own in a flagging market. Ford owned Volvo cars ran up a 27.4% increase for the C70.

The Bad: Every Ford unit was down in July and year-to-date. Ford Brand: off 14%, 14.3% YTD. Lincoln by 1.2%, 20.1% YTD. Mercury by 13%, 22.7YTD. And Volvo by 46.3%, 19.3%YTD.

The Ugly: Every Ford truck and SUV was down, led by Expedition and Explorer, both of which were saddlled with 50% plus losses. Ford officials are predicting that the second half of the year to be worse.

Chrysler:

The Good: Indeed, Chrysler July sales report, unlike past months, had some good news. Notably, every division had at least one vehicle that posted a sales increase. Chrysler's T & C posted a 24% sales increase in July, though its sales remain down 7% for the year. Jeep Patriot sales edged up 4%. Dodge Avenger sales eked out a 2% sales increase.

The Bad: Chrysler's total sales fell below 100,000 for the month, the lowest on record by at least 19,000 units

The Ugly: Chrysler Division sales were down 40% in July, and off 30% YTD. Jeep sales plummeted 39% in July and are down 21% for the year. Dodge sales dropped 17 in July and are off 20% YTD. 


Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
Well-Known Dealer Groups Make Significant Investments In Domestic Franchises
August 13, 2008, Author: Jack Sayer, Managing Partner, Sayer Partners LLC
Detroit Three, Supplier Relations At Five Year Low
August 12, 2008, Author: Jack Sayer, Managing Partner, Sayer Partners LLC
How Bad Was The Week For AutoMakers? Let Me Count The Ways
August 11, 2008, Author: Jack Sayer, Managing Partner, Sayer Partners LLC
Cash-crashing and market share going south
August 7, 2008, Author: GLG Expert Contributor
US Tier One Auto Suppliers To Be Hit Harder As European Designed Vehicles Are Produced In US
August 6, 2008, Author: Dennis Profitt, Consultant, Dennis Profitt
Auto Sales Are Tanking! Does Anyone Remember The 1990 Oil Shock?
August 5, 2008, Author: Jack Sayer, Managing Partner, Sayer Partners LLC

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