Summary
It could get worse, but may get better. Read why. In the transport business who is at risk and appears safe.
Analysis
Bottom, not likely.
Carriers and shippers alike face a significant fall off in demand for their products and movement respectively. Shippers are dependent on consumer spending, auto and US housing, which are off by 20-50% leaving carriers with idle equipment. A rebound by an Obama stimuli package or other economic origin is always possible.
But what about the lack of economic progress so far? Despite many actions, changing methods, and restructuring the financial industry their has been insufficent improvement in the credit markets. We are dealing in new territory here. Additional fallout will affect retailers, builders and carriers, 3pls, and their suppliers.
Hurt the hardest-
Household good movers fewer relos, household moves, and fewer trade show exhibits and high value movements. The gamut.
Flatbed operators hurt with less demand for building and manufacturing materials.
Intermodal operations (ocean, rail and truck), falling in volume due to lower merchandise flows from China and the LDC's.
Auto carriers and parts haulers due to decline in demand, tight credit and potential near term auto company bankruptcies. Could lead to failures in a domino effect by part suppliers and carriers.
Hurt less then the rest
Refrigerated carriers, contractors to the only retail winners including Walmart. etc.
Large well capitalized carriers look for significant cash reserves, untapped credit and financing facilities with compromising "balloon" features.
