Is the baby going to be named Baja Arizona, or Norte Sonora?

Implications: No matter where you are, a billion is lot of dollars. You’ll see from the referenced article the estimate of $ 1 billion coming across the Mexican border into Arizona every year. We in Arizona send that amount and more back to Mexico annually as we visit and shop there too.

Analysis:

Arizona’s governor recently visited her counterpart in Mexico’s State of Sonora just south of Arizona to continue the dialogue as the border gets more restricted due to terrorism and crime whereas the economic need is for much more open traffic. Sonora and the other northern States of Mexico provide 80% of the economic growth in Mexico. The median age in Sonora is 25 and the education level is among the highest in the country, as I remember close to a 12^th grade average. Phoenix-Tucson is expected to be a megalopolis stretching over 100 miles in the coming century and now it’s clear that ultimately that urban area will stretch south across the border to the Sea of Cortez coastlines of the State of Sonora as the future unfolds.

In the last month or so the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the biggest entries for ship born containers in the United States, have settled the latest round in labor contracts without a strike interrupting service. That’s good because 80% of those imported goods end up being distributed in the western States. Any shortage of shipments takes away from $ 1 billion Arizona enjoys from sales to Mexicans. We’re enjoying those sales because we’re at the moment the most efficient distributor to that market. However, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach aren’t going to be able to keep up with the growth in the western U.S. in the future and there is a serious lack of expansion possibilities along the U.S. western coastline. The low hanging fruit for large port sites is in Mexico in the Sea of Cortez between the Mainland and Baja California’s peninsula, a portion of whose northern coasts are in the State of Sonora. Port planning is in process in the State of Sonora along with rail facilities crossing the border either at Nogales south of Tucson or, in the case of one plan, at Juarez across the border from El Paso, Texas further east. A notable sponsor plans not only the seaport and rail facilities, but adds a separate but geographically adjacent aerotropolis, a mixed use concept including cargo airport facilities, commercial property, logistics warehousing and residential communities. This latter proposal may fit the bill more completely than the others and is sponsored by a private Mexican national with a regional reputation for political savvy.

The survey of the growing relationship between Mexico and the United States presents a clear picture that the economies of both will be increasingly ever more intertwined and that each will grow to become a kind of joint economic powerhouse of the Americas. Participating in that progress will be exciting.