Is There Pent up Demand for Adtran’s TA 5000 at AT&T and Verizon

Implications: 1.      As far as the two large RBOCs are concerned,  regarding the TA 5000, Adtran has ironed out all of the inevitable bugs that arise with any new product. 2.      With both companies representing a combined 35 percent of its revenue last quarter, it is important that the supplier has a new solution, which could be used by these telcos in a very big way for several years. 3.      There is an excellent chance that British Telecom will be buying Adtran’s new box.

Analysis:  The product evaluators at Verizon have been rumored as giving the thumbs up to this product -  TA 5000.  With it being determined that the solution can do everything as advertised, it is now possibly in the hands of the sourcing folks at Verizon.  The RBOC appears to be in the process of making a  deal for the solution.  

There are indications that AT&T is doing some trials with the TA 5000 and that the equipment is progressing well there.  In being further ahead than Verizon with the gear, it would not be surprising that within the next six months, deployment of the solution will start to happen at the biggest RBOC.  

Conservatively speaking, the window of opportunity for the TA 5000 is at least a billion dollars worldwide over the lifetime of the product.  It seems that one of the most important functions of the gear at the incumbent telcos is that it facilitates changing their mature, established networks to Ethernet.  

British Telecom, which has lately been inclined to buy the same kinds of products as the RBOCs, is undoubtedly taking a hard look at the TA 5000. Adtran fits the mold of other mid-tier suppliers that BT has been focusing on lately – including Ciena and Tellabs.