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July 2, 2008

Is There Anything Worth Owning In The Auto Industry?

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Jack Sayer, Managing PartnerJack Sayer
Managing Partner, Sayer Partners LLC
Implications: With the uncertainty in the marketplace, is there any automaker that offers a compelling reason to feel good about its future?  Yes...It's Honda.

Analysis:

With high oil prices and report after report from the big automakers cutting production, the answer seems to be a resounding No!. There's simply nothing compelling out there in the automotive space.

Ford? Virtually slashing it's popular truck line in half with delays and production cuts, and the only car worth talking about besides police department contracts, is the Mustang which has now been stagnant for almost half a decade.

GM ? $40 billion in the hole and counting...Not to mention the ugliest cars in America other than Chevrolet. Truly uninspired automotive design.

Toyota? Has had a gret run, however, whispers of U.S. sales declines are slipping through he proverbial cracks, which will put some pressure on upcoming earnings reports. The company has the reputation of being the leader in the hybrid segment going for it, but could the Prius look any worse?

Toyota is not at levels that should cause too much concern, however, times will continue to be rocky in the automotive segment as a whole until oil speculation subsides and consumers take to the road again.

Is there one car company to feel good about? Yes, Honda. It is no coincidence that it is up 4% in sales YTD while others are off significantly.

Honda's secret? Fuel efficient, well engineered cars, that have very good engines, are impressively reliable, and most importantly, don't make you loathe getting into them every morning. It isn't hard to understand that the Accord and Civic show up every year on the best-seller lists. And, the Acura luxury line continues to produce winners as well.

With Toyota showing signs of having a struggle to meet U.S. sales targets, it stands to reason that Honda may be in for some dry spells as well. Although at this point, they seem to have none of the corporate stumbling blocks faced by its U.S. peers and has a big enough worldwide presence to funnel out good small cars to Europe and Japan. 

 



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