Is Mobile TV Dead On Arrival?

Implications: The problems of TU Media in Korea highlight the very challenging business case for broadcast mobile TV. The lack of information emerging about MediaFLO in the US probably indicates initial take-up has been disappointing. European satellite players such as Inmarsat and SES-Eutelsat may also re-evaluate their commitment to satellite-based mobile TV networks

Analysis: TU Media was the first large scale subscription-based broadcast mobile TV system in the world, launching in summer 2005. Despite providing a very wide deployment of terrestrial repeaters (even covering the Seoul subway system, where take-up by commuters was relatively strong), the system has failed to reach critical mass.
Competition from terrestrial free-to-air mobile TV (which has 5M+ users compared to only 1.2M TU Media subscribers) has been one factor, along with the high price of terminals and regulatory restrictions on content availability.
Korea had one of the best opportunities for mobile TV, since lengthy commutes on public transit provided a ready-made audience. In comparison the opportunity in the US is much less, since there is little need for mobile TV while driving to work. Even in Europe, the difficulty of covering (underground) public transit systems in major cities makes it harder to identify a poromising opportunity.
The implications for MediaFLO are not positive: little information has emerged about progress, since the service was launched 9 months ago, indicating that take-up is likely disappointing. Echostar has invested in both the Korean TU Media company and in development of a similar satellite-based system in China (CMBSat), and since splitting off from DISH has tied its future to the success of mobile TV (though Slingbox provides other options if on-demand mobile TV is preferred to broadcast). ICO is also developing a mobile TV-based satellite DVB-SH network.
In Europe, both Inmarsat and an SES-Eutelsat JV are developing satellite-based mobile TV networks (using DVB-SH and backed by Alcatel) in 2GHz MSS spectrum. While SES-Eutelsat may be too far along to make any changes, Inmarsat may now re-evaluate its commitments to this concept.