Is GM's Bob Lutz, Nuts, About The Volt?

Implications: The CEO of Toyota, the one and only only global car company with experience at mass producing vehicles using hybrid, gasoline-electric, power trains said, just a month ago that the lithium-ion battery is not ready for mass production. GM has received, so far, after an investment of , perhaps, one billion dollars, just two 'prototype' lithium ion batteries for beta (actual, but not necessarily final version) testing in Volt simulacra, i.e. bodies, chases, and power trains that simulate a production vehicle) beginning this summer. The whole point is to be able to deliver a car which can run 40 miles only on its battery, after being charged fully, by being, for example, 'plugged in' to the household electric service (For how long??). The Volt will also have an on board a gasoline engine/ generator  able to  run the vehicle's electric motor. The same system would work with a lead-acid battery set. The car would be heavier though. So GM is waiting and spending and fretting.

Analysis:  The American life style of living far from work and shopping is unique in the world, and it has come about because of the ubiquitous relatively cheap gasoline powered automobile. This era is now closing, and America will shortly begin a transition to small diesel powered cars, as Europe did long ago, and a mix of hybrids, electrics, and, perhaps, hydrogen powered vehicles for the wealthy. I say for the wealthy because those alternate power trains will ultimately be used only to make a few of the larger and more powerful, performance cars, which people use to differentiate themselves by net worth from the herd.

This ultimately limited market for non gasoline or diesel fuel powered internal combustion engines, will limit the development of a mass producable battery technology much beyond improvements in already reliable, safe, nickel metal hydride batteries.

The problem with lithium-ion batteries, besides their possible safety issues, is that they are too expensive to be practical. GM knows this, but under Bob Lutz's direction it has decided to go forward assuming and hoping that as the lithium-ion technology is developed it will get much much cheaper just as, in GM's fantasy world, all such technologies have before. In the meantime the adolescent marketing staff at GM has decreed that the Volt will be a halo car; it will cast its radiance over the whole of GM bathing the company in a green glow for those (very few) customers who don't worry about price as long as their car makes a statement.

Bob Lutz is an unusual old timer, a little older than I am,  in that he owns a Soviet Era, MIG fighter plane, which he used to fly himself. He's too old to do that now, but he still makes us, his neighbors in southeast Michigan, aware of him as somebody special when the helicopter that flies him around from home to various GM locations passes over our humble homes on the way to his 'estate.'

The Volt will not and cannot make money in the near term. That is at least five years or more, perhaps, so much more that never is the appropriate word.

Honda will have flooded the market with a Prius fighter, a small hybrid, using a nickel metal hydride battery pack, long before that.

Of course you will not have to plug the Honda in at night or at the office or in the street to charge the battery. Bob lives about 40 miles from GM's headquarters, so his Volt will only be able to make it to the office one way without a recharge. I hope Bob works long hours, because to go the distance will require a full charge of the fantasy battery while Bob is at the office.

I saw a Volt mule the other day, and I wondered how the lanky Mr. Lutz was going to get out of it once he was inside of it, but, perhaps it was only a rejected prototype I saw. Gee, it sure was a lot smaller than the last prototype I saw. I guess that's what it takes to extend the range. Too bad no one in Washington or Detroit can figure out how to cut the average weight of all American cars in half thus doubling their mileage, but what the heck with all those legacy costs for executive pensions I guess GM and the rest of the former big three cannot figure out how to make a small car and make a profit.

Here's an idea for a new law; Anyone who shall purchase a vehicle for a non commercial use shall pay a tax levied on the weight of the vehicle, if such weight exceeds 2500 pounds unloaded, and its CAFE status; said tax shall be equal to the MSRP of the vehicle and shall be levied annually. It's going to happen folks; it's already underway.

I think the whole Volt thing is nuts. Let's forget it and get on with serious ideas.

Of course, if i were a cynic, I might say that a Volt with an official range of 700 miles on a 'tank' of gasoline and an 'equivalent' fuel economy of 50-70 miles to the gallon would sure be a show stopper and even a couple of thousand of them would allow GM to sell several thousand more hugely profitable 8-16 mpg SUVs, so maybe it's not quite as nuts as it looks.