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May 12, 2008

ImClone: Does Morgan Stanley (MS) know something we don't??

Analysis of: US Drug Stocks Edge Higher, But ImClone Falls On Downgrade | news.ino.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Kenneth Algazy, MD, Clinical Professor of Medicine , University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine - CCKenneth Algazy, MD 
Clinical Professor of Medicine , University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine - CC
Implications: Erbitux was touted to have a positive study in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLCA) but all they said was that is was a positive study. No further info at that time but an executive bought a block of stock a few days before the announcement which led to an inevitable rise in the stock price! Does this mean the trial is not as positive as we were led to believe?

Analysis: There is positive and then there is positive!! Was there statistical significance??? We have no idea, but many were annoyed by the premature release of data without any meat. What does MS know that we don't?? This is scheduled for a plenary session at oncology's national meetings. If the data is less than spectacular there will be a great deal of disappointment.


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