If history teaches us anything... it teaches us NOT to predict the future.

Implications: But the future can be managed. We can look at the past cycles and then extrapolate forward potential probabilities. When markets contract, they can keep contracting to oblivion. But the probabilities of markets which are infrastructure tested, tried and true, tend to rebound. Demand growth and upgrades within this market alos indicate stgrong probabilities of recovery. Automobile, real estate, semiconductors, consumer electronics, transportation, financial markets all have probabilities of recovery from their respective lows. Bottom fishing is a tricking business, I suggest that small tax-lot scouts be positioned to exploit dollar-cost-averaging if the market does rebound, and mitigate allocation in case the market stalls.

Analysis: Using time value of investment principal techniques and proper allocation as prudent investment factors; market declines can become probabilities of rebound and principal appreciation.