If This is a Trucking Recovery, I'd Hate to See a Recession

Implications:   The seasonally adjusted ATA Truck Tonnage Index rose a scant 0.5 percent in may, compared with a revised 0.6 percent drop in April. This is the first month-over-month increase in four months.   The seasonally adjusted index was 3.3 percent higher compared with May of 2007. That marks the seventh straight year-over-year increase. In April, the year-over-year gain was 2.2 percent.

Analysis:    It is technically a trucking recovery. Seven straight months of year-over-year increases. But the scant 0.5 percent tonnage increase in May is so small as to be barely statistically significant.
  Still, for an industry that is now entering its 25th month of a what is basically a trucking recession, it's reason to fly the flag. A little bit, at least.
  Freight volumes remain mixed across the industry amid continually rising fuel prices ($4.80 a gallon at this writing, and rising) and slack demand from the weak U.S. economy.
  Still, the 3.3 percent year-over-year increase for May was fairly significant. That follows 2.2 percent year-over-year increases for April and 1.5 percent YOY increases for March.
  The ATA loads indexes show a 5 percent YOY growth in April and a 5.2 percent YOY decide in April for large TL carriers and small TL carriers, respectively.
  There are sector highlights, however. Reefer and bulk tank loads showed healthy gains in April, while there was modest gains in TL dry van. Surprisingly, flatbed loads showed declines. That is news because the flatbed sector had been the one area that had shown resiliency in the teeth of this recession.
  Total LTL tonnage rose 6.1 percent YOY in April. That still wasn't enough to stop mega LTL carriers UPS and FedEx to issue profit and volume guidance declines for the remainder of the year, as their small package volume continues to be soft as customers "down-sell" toward more time-deferred freight.
  Truckers are getting little help from intermodal. Intermodal originations fell 4.9 percent YOY, partially impacted by the Midwestern floods.
  In summary, this is as tepid a recovery as one might see. In fact, I hesitate to call it a recovery. It's merely some carriers are able to pick up slack from bankrupt carriers (Jevic, Alvan, et al) and take advantage of capacity withdrawal by some TL carriers (J.B. Hunt, Werner and others). But if this is what economists are calling a recovery, they need to look in the dictionary under "R" and think again.