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October 16, 2007

How does the additional of Samsung CapEx will affect the market

Analysis of: Samsung's CapEx hike worries market | www.eetimes.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Israel Beinglass, Ph.D.
Managing Director, ISB Ventures
Implications: Samsung has been loosing market share during the last few quarters, by increasing capacity they would like to fight back especially Hynix and Elpida and regain market share....however the article mentions that it could be a devastating process since the DRAM market is already in a big decline in ASP, so any extra capacity will accelerate this issue.

Analysis:  The DRAM pricing continue to drop due to over supply and very aggressive price cutting from Samsung's competitors. Looks like it did work for a while since Samsung who became somewhat complacent for the last year lost some market share. It is true that the situation in NAND is somewhat different since the demand for the product is still very high, but all Samsung's competitors are adding more and more capacity for that growing market.
Samsung's decision to hike their CapEx spending in order to regain market share is good news to the different tool makers (AMAT, NVLS, LRCX, ASML etc) but could act as a boomerang and get the price in a tail spin to lower and lower, at this time everyone loses....


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