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June 27, 2008

How High Will Crude Have to Go Before We Can Stop Shouting at the Rain!

Analysis of: Bush's last gasp on oil | seattletimes.nwsource.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Stanley McWilliams, Independent ConsultantStanley McWilliams
Independent Consultant, Stan McWilliams
Implications: Whether it is demand destruction, increased development of alternatives and renewables, increased conservation or increased drilling, any hidden benefits found in high oil prices will not out weigh the damage that is being done to business, individuals and our economy. And although it is obvious in reading the source article that oil prices have not reached the tipping point yet, it certainly can’t be far.  

Analysis:  No one that reads this article will be a bigger champion of the free trade, have a greater belief in the efficiency of open markets, nor support the benefits of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) more than this author. Although not the “silver bullet,” I have yet to see anyone offer anything better than the overall equalizing effect of business. Philosophically, I believe we all carry the burden of our current circumstances and that business not government is the employer of last resort. Certainly not without some regulation, typically less government is the best government.  

With that said, started by the housing bubble and the subprime fiasco, high oil prices are now turning what little positive growth the economy exhibited, into a negative. And again it will be those that are able to least protect themselves that will suffer the most. Nothing more than a high tax, those that make the least typically drive the farthest.  

The more efficient will always bankrupt the less efficient. More government will often have unintended consequences. Politicians are always running their next campaign and Fed policy will often slow economies creating unemployment and bankruptcy at the margins. However, today’s economic damage and the recessionary issues yet to develop are as much self-induced as they are systematic, and until Congress and others quit fighting the battles of the 60’s, we should expect the same result.  

Yes, weaning our self off foreign oil and China reducing subsidies’ for fuel, will be a positive; however, these are things that could have been done with a little bipartisanship. Attacking your opponents agenda allows you to define your own and is successful in business and politics, but when do we reach the tipping point and at what price is it no longer worth it. Evidently it is more than $142 per barrel.  

Everything has to be on the table…..     

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
Bottom of the Barrel
July 1, 2008, Author: GLG Expert Contributor

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