Ho Hum, Rising Tide Lifts All Boats & Vice Versa

Implications: This is a perfect example of my often repeated notion that what passes for news in today's 24/7 news-hungry environment is mostly just a rehash of old and obvious observations.   This WSJ reporter obviously was given the assignment to write something newsworthy about the annual shopping center industry's trade show currently being held in Vegas. In a failed attempt to address the various (and often conflicting) concerns that are voiced each year in this (and probably every other industry trade show since time began), this reporter tried to grab attention by crafting a catchy headline. Unfortunately the headline bore no relationship to the recycled information contained in the article.   In an effort to save the GLG News reader some time and effort I will allow my Commentary to summarize the essence of the trade show.

Analysis: For those of you who have not heard the news, the country is in the midst of a recession.  For those of you who do not know what happens in a recession, the WSJ reporter wants to alert you to the news that people spend less money.  He also wants you to know that when they spend less money, the retailers have lower sales and profits. When retailers have less profits they have less money with which to build new stores.

Now that I have summarized the important news in this WSJ article that GLG believed to be newsworthy enough to suggest it needed further analysis, let me point out some issues that a more knowledgable reporter could have turned into a very newsworthy event.

There were three themes that ran through almost every conversation and presentation at this year's ICSC convention.
 
The first was the complaint that cheap, easy money has dried up and now the developers were forced to develop only projects that made economic sense and that retailers really needed and wanted. 

The next theme was that the entire mall industry was worried about some of the major anchor department stores closing underperforming units and what that would do to the rest of the malls affected by the closed stores.

The last was that despite a major PR effort to counteract the obvious decline in attendance and foot traffic on the convention floor, the convention sponsors went to great lengths to create a "cover story" for the press that all was well in the shopping center industry.

There was not one word about the supersaturation of almost every trade area in the country. Not one word about the numerous retailers who have managed to avert bankruptcy for several years by relying upon unrealistically cheap money. Not one word about the need for a major "thinning of the herd" to allow the stronger members a better chance of prosperity. In short, there was not one word uttered by any "official source" about any meaningful topic that will be impacting this very vulnerable industry for years to come.