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June 11, 2008

High-end GPS equipment (approx. 250,000 receivers) will become obsolete.

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Eric Gakstatter, PrincipalEric Gakstatter
Principal, Discovery Management Group, Llc
Implications: The DoD's proposal would essentially obsolete legacy high-end GPS receivers after Dec. 31, 2020. The DoD estimates there are approximately 250,000 of these in use today. The replacement cost of each receiver is $10-20,000 each.  This action introduces uncertainty into the high-precision GPS marketplace. Some manufacturers are still selling legacy products.

Analysis: For all manufacturers offering receivers that utilize the new civil GPS signals (L2C, L5), the DoD's proposed action may result in accelerated hardware purchase/upgrades by the user community. The DoD argues that most users will have upgraded by 2020 anyway and says it's a minor issue. That is true to an extent, but GPS hasn't been around long enough for the DoD or DoC to fully understand the life cycle of these products. There are products that have been on the market for 20 years and there are new products being sold today using legacy technology that would be affected 12 yrs from now.

Some manufacturers are still selling legacy GPS products. This action would put them at a competitive disadvantage in the marketplace (at least those particular product lines).

Companies affected are: Trimble Navigation, Topcon, Hexagon/Leica/Novatel, Magellan, Deere/Navcomm, Hemisphere GPS, Novariant and Septentrio.

Industries affected are: surveying, engineering, construction, agriculture, deformation monitoring, high-precision GIS.

Read more at:  http://sc.gpsworld.com/gpssc/


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