Summary
On the face of it it seems a great solution exmained in the present and in isolation. Things are not so simple when examined in the whole. World uses energy as electricity, gases and liquids. 98% is derived fossil fuels, some 88mtoe equivalent/day. The sceptre of declining fossil production is well evidenced and documented, we may have reached peak geological production lmits against rising energy demand so there is divergence between production and supply. As this increases fossil fuel costs rise. Using agricultural products to produce liquid fuels pegs food costs firmly in the energy basket costs, great for farmers. The impact of an energy customer competing for agricultural produce were predicted and becoming clear. We see the effects of this as world population rises and food shortages are agravated. This will get worse. A growing backlash, environmentally, food shortages and sustainability as each energy crop needs inputs to produce them with habitat detsruction
Analysis
If this scenario plays out we could see:
Consumer backlash and boycotting biofuel and rising protests from environmental and consumer groups, this is beginning.
This could result in, and I would lobby for this, abolish outright production of biofuel from primary agricultural produce.
This will reduce revenue streams of companies using these sources whislt others using jatropha and the like in arid areas will increase. It will increase biowaste stream processes and alternative fuel energy options particulary hydrogen having a beneficial impact on their stocks.
No one can predict the future but we can make informed guesses, some wll be right some not, who can say, those in 5 years methinks
