Summary
Nokia Siemens Networks desperately needs to establish a sizable public network presence in North America. Even if Ericsson places a bid, NSN appears to be the favorite to get Nortel’s optical assets. There has been speculation about Infinera entering the fray.
Analysis
Potentially combined with Nortel’s DMS central office installed base, NSN would have a compelling equipment base in NA. There has been some conjecture that Infinera combined with a VC package could be a bidder. Of course, it is not out of the question that, if necessary, NSN could hook up with other venture capital firms. At this time, it appears that Ciena will probably not pursue too much of a higher bid than it already has submitted. Nokia can definitely outlast Infinera and Ciena.
Assuming Ciena loses, it would be a big blow to the leadership’s self-image. However, we still believe that the supplier would be much better off. The potential problem is that Ciena may make a precipitous move in another direction that could be even more detrimental.
If Infinera were to win, it would be a complete transformation – and would make it a serious player again.
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
